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nfl week 7 odds
Either way, this will be a game between Teddy Bridgewater and a meh Bears quarterback either named Trubisky or Chase Daniel, and a Bears defense allowing 13.8 points per game and a Saints defense allowing 20.3 points per game. It's not that Bridgewater is a bad quarterback, it's just that the Saints have been deploying a very conservative offense since he took over for Drew Brees, while leaning on their underrated defense and Alvin Kamara. Speaking of Kamara, he's battling an ankle injury that could prevent him from playing. Even with Kamara, two of the Saints' last three games have gone under. Meanwhile, three of the Bears' five games have gone under -- mostly because their defense is one of the league's best defenses and their offense is on the lower end of the spectrum.Last week: 3-2 This year : 11-18-1.I said this on our bonus YouTube episode of the Pick Six Podcast on Sunday night: If the 49ers can score 10 points, they'll probably cover the spread. That might've been a bit of an exaggeration, but the point remains, this 49ers defense is so dominant that it's difficult to imagine the Redskins scoring more than 10 points. They just held the Rams to seven points. If they can befuddle Jared Goff and Sean McVay, they can do the same to Case Keenum and Bill Callahan. The 49ers have held their opponents to single digits in consecutive weeks, and haven't allowed more than 20 points all season. On average, they're allowing 12.8 points per game -- only the Patriots' defense has been better.While the 49ers' offense has its issues, they can run the heck out of the ball and they'll be going up against a Redskins defense that is 24th by DVOA and is allowing the fifth-most points (27.8 per game). This comes down to if you think the 49ers can score at least 20 points. I think they can.The Cardinals have the better rookie quarterback who's trending way up after a 340-yard, three-touchdown performance in a win over the Falcons. While the Falcons defense is -- to steal Ryan Wilson's go-to phrase on the Pick Six Podcast -- straight doo-doo, so is the Giants' defense, which is 23rd in DVOA and has given up 26.7 points per game. Only five teams have given up more. In Kyler Murray's past two starts, he's averaging 8.6 yards per attempt without turning the ball over. He's also rushed for 125 yards and a score in that span. He's going to cause a ton of issues against a bad Giants defense, both through the air and the ground.
Both of these teams aren't good. That much is clear. I don't think either team wins by more than a field goal. So, I'll take the three points.But back to the big mo, because, well, I've got it. Since starting 1-9, I've gone 10-9-1, which isn't anywhere close to the kind of runs I pieced together a year ago, but it does represent progress. I'm 6-4 in my past two weeks. And I'm a few more winning weeks away from clawing my way back to .500.Plus, as my editor, R.J. White, noted over at SportsLine, the Rams are 5-2 against the spread under Sean McVay in games that kick off at 1 p.m. ET. So, don't be worried about the Rams traveling across the country to play one of the worst teams in football.I'll take the under instead.
Expect a close low-scoring game between two good defenses and two offenses that don't score many points.Mitchell Trubisky practiced on Wednesday and if he's able to make his return on Sunday, I like the Bears' chances to beat the Saints after a difficult pre-bye loss to the Raiders. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for Chicago, I like the under.On the other side of the field will be a Broncos offense that just isn't any good regardless of health. The Broncos' Joe Flacco-led offense is averaging only 17.7 points per game. By DVOA, the Broncos' offense ranks 20th. Even against a bad Chiefs defense, it's tough to imagine this Broncos offense exploding for points. But their defense -- 17.7 points allowed per game and eighth in DVOA -- is good enough to slow down the Chiefs' explosive, but hobbled offense. Four of the Broncos' first six games have gone under.As I also said on that same bonus YouTube episode of the Pick Six Podcast, this is the perfect get-right game for the Rams' offense. The Falcons' defense just allowed Kyler Murray to shred them for 340 yards and three touchdowns. So far this season, they're allowing 31 points per game. Only the Dolphins have allowed more. They're 30th by DVOA. The Rams' offense has been awful in recent weeks, but even not-good offenses have been able to tear apart the Falcons' defense.I suppose we should start with the Chiefs' offense and how badly it's been struggling by its standards. In their past two games, both of which were losses, the Chiefs have scored 13 and 24 points. In their previous 22 games with Patrick Mahomes as their starting quarterback, they didn't score fewer than 25 points even once. In his past three games, Mahomes has completed only 56 percent of his passes, averaged only 7.8 yards per attempt, thrown only four touchdowns, and posted a sub-90 passer rating. Clearly, something is wrong with the Chiefs' offense. Most of it has to do with injuries -- the offensive line is banged up, most notably with left tackle Eric Fisher still out, and Mahomes is dealing with a nagging ankle injury he keeps aggravating. It's a problem.
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